@article{blair_predicting_2017, title = {Predicting local violence: {Evidence} from a panel survey in {Liberia}}, volume = {54}, issn = {0022-3433}, shorttitle = {Predicting local violence}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343316684009}, doi = {10.1177/0022343316684009}, abstract = {Riots, murders, lynchings, and other forms of local violence are costly to security forces and society at large. Identifying risk factors and forecasting where local violence is most likely to occur should help allocate scarce peacekeeping and policing resources. Most forecasting exercises of this kind rely on structural or event data, but these have many limitations in the poorest and most war-torn states, where the need for prediction is arguably most urgent. We adopt an alternative approach, applying machine learning techniques to original panel survey data from Liberia to predict collective, interpersonal, and extrajudicial violence two years into the future. We first train our models to predict 2010 local violence using 2008 risk factors, then generate forecasts for 2012 before collecting new data. Our models achieve out-of-sample AUCs ranging from 0.65 to 0.74, depending on our specification of the dependent variable. The models also draw our attention to risk factors different from those typically emphasized in studies aimed at causal inference alone. For example, we find that while ethnic heterogeneity and polarization are reliable predictors of local violence, adverse economic shocks are not. Surprisingly, we also find that the risk of local violence is higher rather than lower in communities where minority and majority ethnic groups share power. These counter-intuitive results illustrate the usefulness of prediction for generating new stylized facts for future research to explain. Ours is one of just two attempts to forecast local violence using survey data, and we conclude by discussing how our approach can be replicated and extended as similar datasets proliferate.}, language = {en}, number = {2}, urldate = {2021-06-26}, journal = {Journal of Peace Research}, author = {Blair, Robert A and Blattman, Christopher and Hartman, Alexandra}, month = mar, year = {2017}, note = {Publisher: SAGE Publications Ltd}, keywords = {Africa, forecasting, machine learning, surveys, violence}, pages = {298--312}, file = {SAGE PDF Full Text:C\:\\Users\\SAYASH\\Zotero\\storage\\M78RJ8GD\\Blair et al. - 2017 - Predicting local violence Evidence from a panel s.pdf:application/pdf}, } @article{cederman_predicting_2017, title = {Predicting armed conflict: {Time} to adjust our expectations?}, volume = {355}, copyright = {Copyright {\textcopyright} 2017, American Association for the Advancement of Science}, issn = {0036-8075, 1095-9203}, shorttitle = {Predicting armed conflict}, url = {https://science.sciencemag.org/content/355/6324/474}, doi = {10.1126/science.aal4483}, abstract = {{\textless}p{\textgreater}This Essay provides an introduction to the general challenges of predicting political violence, particularly compared with predicting other types of events (such as earthquakes). What is possible? What is less realistic? We aim to debunk myths about predicting violence, as well as to illustrate the substantial progress in this field.{\textless}/p{\textgreater}}, language = {en}, number = {6324}, urldate = {2021-06-26}, journal = {Science}, author = {Cederman, Lars-Erik and Weidmann, Nils B.}, month = feb, year = {2017}, pmid = {28154047}, note = {Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science Section: Essays}, pages = {474--476}, file = {Full Text PDF:C\:\\Users\\SAYASH\\Zotero\\storage\\S7SHQ4H8\\Cederman and Weidmann - 2017 - Predicting armed conflict Time to adjust our expe.pdf:application/pdf;Snapshot:C\:\\Users\\SAYASH\\Zotero\\storage\\TVIQ6E9N\\474.html:text/html}, } @article{cederman_predicting_2017-1, title = {Predicting the decline of ethnic civil war: {Was} {Gurr} right and for the right reasons?}, volume = {54}, issn = {0022-3433}, shorttitle = {Predicting the decline of ethnic civil war}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343316684191}, doi = {10.1177/0022343316684191}, abstract = {Many scholars have detected a decrease of political violence, but the causes of this decline remain unclear. As a contribution to this debate, we revisit the controversy over trends in conflict after the end of the Cold War. While many made ominous predictions of surging ethnic warfare, Gurr presented evidence of a pacifying trend since the mid-1990s and predicted a further decline in ethnic conflict in an article on {\textquoteleft}the waning of ethnic war{\textquoteright}. Leveraging more recent data on ethnic groups and their participation in ethnic civil wars, this study evaluates if Gurr was right about the decline of ethnic conflict, and if he was right for the right reasons. We assess whether an increase in governments{\textquoteright} accommodative policies toward ethnic groups can plausibly account for a decline in ethnic civil war. Our findings lend considerable support to an account of the pacifying trend that stresses the granting of group rights, regional autonomy, and inclusion in power-sharing, as well as democratization and peacekeeping.}, language = {en}, number = {2}, urldate = {2021-06-26}, journal = {Journal of Peace Research}, author = {Cederman, Lars-Erik and Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede and Wucherpfennig, Julian}, month = mar, year = {2017}, note = {Publisher: SAGE Publications Ltd}, keywords = {civil war, decline of war, ethnic conflict, ethnic inclusion, group rights, power sharing}, pages = {262--274}, file = {Accepted Version:C\:\\Users\\SAYASH\\Zotero\\storage\\ZF37WL85\\Cederman et al. - 2017 - Predicting the decline of ethnic civil war Was Gu.pdf:application/pdf}, } @article{chadefaux_conflict_2017, title = {Conflict forecasting and its limits}, volume = {1}, issn = {2451-8484}, url = {https://content.iospress.com/articles/data-science/ds002}, doi = {10.3233/DS-170002}, abstract = {Research on international conflict has mostly focused on explaining events such as the onset or termination of wars, rather than on trying to predict them. Recently, however, forecasts of political phenomena have received growing attention. Predictio}, language = {en}, number = {1-2}, urldate = {2021-06-26}, journal = {Data Science}, author = {Chadefaux, Thomas}, month = jan, year = {2017}, note = {Publisher: IOS Press}, pages = {7--17}, file = {Full Text PDF:C\:\\Users\\SAYASH\\Zotero\\storage\\829UNAHA\\Chadefaux - 2017 - Conflict forecasting and its limits.pdf:application/pdf;Snapshot:C\:\\Users\\SAYASH\\Zotero\\storage\\F8BP6NEK\\ds002.html:text/html}, } @article{chenoweth_can_2017, title = {Can {Structural} {Conditions} {Explain} the {Onset} of {Nonviolent} {Uprisings}?}, volume = {61}, issn = {0022-0027}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002715576574}, doi = {10.1177/0022002715576574}, abstract = {Despite the prevalence of nonviolent uprisings in recent history, no existing scholarship has produced a generalized explanation of when and where such uprisings are most likely to occur. Our primary aim in this article is to evaluate whether different available models{\textemdash}namely, grievance approaches, modernization theory, resource mobilization theory, and political opportunity approaches{\textemdash}are useful in explaining the onset of major nonviolent uprisings. We assemble a reduced list of correlates based on each model and use each model{\textquoteright}s out-of-sample area under the curve and logarithmic score to test each theory{\textquoteright}s explanatory power. We find that the political opportunity model performs best for both in- and out-of-sample cases, though grievance and resource mobilization approaches also provide some explanatory power. We use a culled model of the predicted probabilities of the strongest-performing variables from all models to forecast major nonviolent uprisings in 2011 and 2012. In this out-of-sample test, all models produce mixed results, suggesting greater emphasis on agency over structure in explaining these episodes.}, language = {en}, number = {2}, urldate = {2021-06-26}, journal = {Journal of Conflict Resolution}, author = {Chenoweth, Erica and Ulfelder, Jay}, month = feb, year = {2017}, note = {Publisher: SAGE Publications Inc}, keywords = {conflict, contention, democratization, human rights, political survival, rebellion}, pages = {298--324}, } @article{daxecker_enforcing_2017, title = {Enforcing order: {Territorial} reach and maritime piracy}, volume = {34}, issn = {0738-8942}, shorttitle = {Enforcing order}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1177/0738894215594756}, doi = {10.1177/0738894215594756}, abstract = {Existing studies of piracy focus attention on the institutional determinants of maritime piracy, but neglect variation in governments{\textquoteright} reach over territory. We argue that the effect of state capacity on piracy is a function of states{\textquoteright} ability to extend authority over the country{\textquoteright}s entire territory. We expect that government reach{\textemdash}a function of geographic factors such as the distance between a country{\textquoteright}s capital and its coastline{\textemdash}mediates the effect of state capacity on piracy. Weak governments allow for the planning and implementation of attacks and reduce the risk of capture, but particularly so if sufficient distance separates pirates from political authority. An empirical analysis of country-year data on maritime piracy collected by the International Maritime Bureau for the 1995{\textendash}2013 period shows that capital{\textendash}coastline distance mediates the effect of institutional fragility on piracy as hypothesized. These results remain robust for alternative operationalizations of state capacity and reach. In addition, the models perform well in terms of predictive power, forecasting piracy quite accurately for 2013. The expectations and evidence presented in this paper help explain why states with intermediate levels of state capacity but low levels of reach{\textemdash}such as Indonesia, Tanzania or Venezuela{\textemdash}struggle with substantial incidence of piracy.}, language = {en}, number = {4}, urldate = {2021-06-26}, journal = {Conflict Management and Peace Science}, author = {Daxecker, Ursula and Prins, Brandon C.}, month = jul, year = {2017}, note = {Publisher: SAGE Publications Ltd}, keywords = {Loss of strength gradient, maritime piracy, power projection, state capacity}, pages = {359--379}, } @article{daxecker_financing_2017, title = {Financing rebellion: {Using} piracy to explain and predict conflict intensity in {Africa} and {Southeast} {Asia}}, volume = {54}, issn = {0022-3433}, shorttitle = {Financing rebellion}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343316683436}, doi = {10.1177/0022343316683436}, abstract = {A prominent explanation of the resource{\textendash}conflict relationship suggests that natural resources finance rebellion by permitting rebel leaders the opportunity to purchase weapons, fighters, and local support. The bunkering of oil in the Niger Delta by quasi-criminal syndicates is an example of how the black-market selling of stolen oil may help finance anti-state groups. More systematic assessments have also shown that the risk and duration of conflict increases in the proximity of oil and diamond deposits. Yet despite the emphasis on rebel resource extraction in these arguments, empirical assessments rely almost exclusively on latent resource availability rather than actual resource extraction. Focusing on maritime piracy, this article argues that piracy is a funding strategy neglected in current research. Anecdotal evidence connects piracy in the Greater Gulf of Aden to arms trafficking, the drug trade, and human slavery. The revenue from attacks may find its way to Al-Shabaab. In Nigeria, increasing attacks against oil transports may signal an effort by insurgents to use the profits from piracy as an additional revenue stream to fund their campaign against the Nigerian government. The article hypothesizes that piracy incidents, that is, actual acts of looting, increase the intensity of civil conflict. Using inferential statistics and predictive assessments, our evidence from conflicts in coastal African and Southeast Asian states from 1993 to 2010 shows that maritime piracy increases conflict intensity, and that the inclusion of dynamic factors helps improve the predictive performance of empirical models of conflict events in in-sample and out-of-sample forecasts.}, language = {en}, number = {2}, urldate = {2021-06-26}, journal = {Journal of Peace Research}, author = {Daxecker, Ursula and Prins, Brandon C}, month = mar, year = {2017}, note = {Publisher: SAGE Publications Ltd}, keywords = {civil wars, crime, forecasting, in-sample prediction, maritime piracy, natural resources, out-of-sample prediction}, pages = {215--230}, } @article{duursma_counting_2017, title = {Counting {Deaths} {While} {Keeping} {Peace}: {An} {Assessment} of the {JMAC}'s {Field} {Information} and {Analysis} {Capacity} in {Darfur}}, volume = {24}, issn = {1353-3312}, shorttitle = {Counting {Deaths} {While} {Keeping} {Peace}}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/13533312.2017.1383567}, doi = {10.1080/13533312.2017.1383567}, abstract = {This article assesses the Joint Mission Analysis Centre's (JMAC) field information and analysis capacity through systematically comparing JMAC's data collection in Darfur to an event-level conflict dataset based on open-source information. This comparison shows that JMAC's data collection in Darfur over the studied period is much more comprehensive and precise than any publicly available data on conflict events currently available. In addition, this article demonstrates how peacekeeping data could be used to guide the leadership of peacekeeping missions.}, number = {5}, urldate = {2021-06-26}, journal = {International Peacekeeping}, author = {Duursma, Allard}, month = oct, year = {2017}, pages = {823--847}, file = {Snapshot:C\:\\Users\\SAYASH\\Zotero\\storage\\4X6N6QUL\\13533312.2017.html:text/html}, } @article{fast_diverging_2017, title = {Diverging {Data}: {Exploring} the {Epistemologies} of {Data} {Collection} and {Use} among {Those} {Working} on and in {Conflict}}, volume = {24}, issn = {1353-3312}, shorttitle = {Diverging {Data}}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/13533312.2017.1383562}, doi = {10.1080/13533312.2017.1383562}, abstract = {The emergence of {\textquoteleft}big data{\textquoteright} and calls for {\textquoteleft}evidence-based decision-making{\textquoteright} to increase the effectiveness of peacekeeping, humanitarian, and development programming have resulted in an often-unadulterated embrace of the promise of data as a solution to a diverse set of problems facing these sectors. At the same time, however, the increasing and widespread collection of data {\textendash} by researchers, policymakers, and operational actors {\textendash} directly contrasts with the sense that data are often collected yet not used. Taking a step back, this article examines the epistemologies of data collection and use from the perspectives of the scholar/researcher, and the practitioner/operational actor to illustrate how these perspectives elicit a series of data divergences. I argue that the collection and use of data replicate and are poised to extend the theory-practice divide that exists between researchers who study violence {\textendash} those working {\textquoteleft}on{\textquoteright} conflict {\textendash} and the peacekeepers, peacebuilders, and aid workers who work {\textquoteleft}in{\textquoteright} the midst of it. Differing conceptions of the purpose and use, sources and characteristics, and time frames of data reflect role-based positionalities that shape practices of collection, affect their interoperability, and limit their possible use, even as combining these types of data could also address their inherent limitations.}, number = {5}, urldate = {2021-06-26}, journal = {International Peacekeeping}, author = {Fast, Larissa}, month = oct, year = {2017}, pages = {706--732}, file = {Snapshot:C\:\\Users\\SAYASH\\Zotero\\storage\\5VPLZUPR\\13533312.2017.html:text/html}, } @misc{noauthor_canaries_nodate, title = {Canaries in a coal-mine? {What} the killings of journalists tell us about future repression - {Anita} {R} {Gohdes}, {Sabine} {C} {Carey}, 2017}, url = {https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0022343316680859}, urldate = {2021-06-26}, file = {Canaries in a coal-mine? What the killings of journalists tell us about future repression - Anita R Gohdes, Sabine C Carey, 2017:C\:\\Users\\SAYASH\\Zotero\\storage\\755V65UQ\\0022343316680859.html:text/html}, } @article{hegre_forecasting_2016, title = {Forecasting civil conflict along the shared socioeconomic pathways}, volume = {11}, issn = {1748-9326}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/5/054002}, doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/11/5/054002}, abstract = {Climate change and armed civil conflict are both linked to socioeconomic development, although conditions that facilitate peace may not necessarily facilitate mitigation and adaptation to climate change. While economic growth lowers the risk of conflict, it is generally associated with increased greenhouse gas emissions and costs of climate mitigation policies. This study investigates the links between growth, climate change, and conflict by simulating future civil conflict using new scenario data for five alternative socioeconomic pathways with different mitigation and adaptation assumptions, known as the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). We develop a statistical model of the historical effect of key socioeconomic variables on country-specific conflict incidence, 1960{\textendash}2013. We then forecast the annual incidence of conflict, 2014{\textendash}2100, along the five SSPs. We find that SSPs with high investments in broad societal development are associated with the largest reduction in conflict risk. This is most pronounced for the least developed countries{\textemdash}poverty alleviation and human capital investments in poor countries are much more effective instruments to attain global peace and stability than further improvements to wealthier economies. Moreover, the SSP that describes a sustainability pathway, which poses the lowest climate change challenges, is as conducive to global peace as the conventional development pathway.}, language = {en}, number = {5}, urldate = {2021-06-26}, journal = {Environmental Research Letters}, author = {Hegre, H{\r a}vard and Buhaug, Halvard and Calvin, Katherine V. and Nordkvelle, Jonas and Waldhoff, Stephanie T. and Gilmore, Elisabeth}, month = apr, year = {2016}, note = {Publisher: IOP Publishing}, pages = {054002}, file = {IOP Full Text PDF:C\:\\Users\\SAYASH\\Zotero\\storage\\P93MZCZJ\\Hegre et al. - 2016 - Forecasting civil conflict along the shared socioe.pdf:application/pdf}, } @article{hegre_introduction_2017, title = {Introduction: {Forecasting} in peace research}, volume = {54}, issn = {0022-3433}, shorttitle = {Introduction}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343317691330}, doi = {10.1177/0022343317691330}, abstract = {Prediction and forecasting have now fully reached peace and conflict research. We define forecasting as predictions about unrealized outcomes given model estimates from realized data, and predictions more generally as the assignment of probability distributions to realized or unrealized outcomes. Increasingly, scholars present within- and out-of-sample prediction results in their publications and sometimes even forecasts for unrealized, future outcomes. The articles in this special issue demonstrate the ability of current approaches to forecast events of interest and contributes to the formulation of best practices for forecasting within peace research. We highlight the role of forecasting for theory evaluation and as a bridge between academics and policymakers, summarize the contributions in the special issue, and provide some thoughts on how research on forecasting in peace research should proceed. We suggest some best practices, noting the importance of theory development, interpretability of models, replicability of results, and data collection.}, language = {en}, number = {2}, urldate = {2021-06-26}, journal = {Journal of Peace Research}, author = {Hegre, H{\r a}vard and Metternich, Nils W and Nyg{\r a}rd, H{\r a}vard Mokleiv and Wucherpfennig, Julian}, month = mar, year = {2017}, note = {Publisher: SAGE Publications Ltd}, keywords = {forecasting, out of sample evaluation, peace research, prediction, theory testing}, pages = {113--124}, file = {SAGE PDF Full Text:C\:\\Users\\SAYASH\\Zotero\\storage\\8XQWM7R5\\Hegre et al. - 2017 - Introduction Forecasting in peace research.pdf:application/pdf}, } @article{hegre_evaluating_2017, title = {Evaluating the scope and intensity of the conflict trap: {A} dynamic simulation approach}, volume = {54}, issn = {0022-3433}, shorttitle = {Evaluating the scope and intensity of the conflict trap}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343316684917}, doi = {10.1177/0022343316684917}, abstract = {Several studies show that internal armed conflict breeds conflict by exacerbating conditions that increase the chances of war breaking out again. Empirically, this {\textquoteleft}conflict trap{\textquoteright} works through four pathways: conflicts increase the likelihood of continuation, recurrence, escalation, and diffusion of conflict. Past empirical studies have underestimated the scope and intensity of the conflict trap since they consider the impact of conflict only through one of these pathways and rarely across sufficiently long time periods. This article shows that simulation and forecasting techniques are useful and indeed necessary to quantify the total, aggregated effect of the conflict trap, over long time periods and across countries. We develop a country-year statistical model that allows estimating the probability of no conflict, minor conflict, and major conflict, and the probabilities of transition between these states. A set of variables denoting the immediate and more distant conflict history of the country are used as endogenous predictors in the simulated forecasts. Another set of variables shown to be robustly associated with armed conflict are treated as exogenous predictors. We show that the conflict trap is even more severe than earlier studies have indicated. For instance, if a large low-income country with no previous conflicts is simulated to have two to three years of conflict over the 2015{\textendash}18 period, we find that it will have nine more years of conflict over the 2019{\textendash}40 period than if peace holds up to 2018. Conversely, if a large low-income country that has had major conflict with more than 1,000 battle-related deaths in several of the past ten years succeeds in containing violence to minor conflict over the 2015{\textendash}18 period, we find that it will experience five fewer years of conflict in the subsequent 20 years than if violence continues unabated.}, language = {en}, number = {2}, urldate = {2021-06-26}, journal = {Journal of Peace Research}, author = {Hegre, H{\r a}vard and Nyg{\r a}rd, H{\r a}vard Mokleiv and R{\ae}der, Ranveig Flaten}, month = mar, year = {2017}, note = {Publisher: SAGE Publications Ltd}, keywords = {conflict diffusion, conflict escalation, conflict recurrence, conflict trap, forecasting, simulation}, pages = {243--261}, file = {SAGE PDF Full Text:C\:\\Users\\SAYASH\\Zotero\\storage\\KL2YFCMU\\Hegre et al. - 2017 - Evaluating the scope and intensity of the conflict.pdf:application/pdf}, } @article{hirose_can_2017, title = {Can civilian attitudes predict insurgent violence? {Ideology} and insurgent tactical choice in civil war}, volume = {54}, issn = {0022-3433}, shorttitle = {Can civilian attitudes predict insurgent violence?}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343316675909}, doi = {10.1177/0022343316675909}, abstract = {Are civilian attitudes a useful predictor of patterns of violence in civil wars? A prominent debate has emerged among scholars and practitioners about the importance of winning civilian {\textquoteleft}hearts and minds{\textquoteright} for influencing their wartime behavior. We argue that such efforts may have a dark side: insurgents can use pro-counterinsurgent attitudes as cues to select their targets and tactics. We conduct an original survey experiment in 204 Afghan villages and establish a positive association between pro-International Security Assistance Force attitudes and future Taliban attacks. We extend our analysis to 14,606 non-surveyed villages and demonstrate that our measure of civilian attitudes improves out-of-sample predictive performance by 20{\textendash}30\% over a standard forecasting model. The results are especially strong for Taliban attacks with improvised explosive devices. These improvements in predictive power remain even after adjusting for possible confounders, including past violence, military bases, and development aid.}, language = {en}, number = {1}, urldate = {2021-06-26}, journal = {Journal of Peace Research}, author = {Hirose, Kentaro and Imai, Kosuke and Lyall, Jason}, month = jan, year = {2017}, note = {Publisher: SAGE Publications Ltd}, keywords = {civil war, out-of-sample prediction, public opinion, survey experiment}, pages = {47--63}, file = {SAGE PDF Full Text:C\:\\Users\\SAYASH\\Zotero\\storage\\YVK52NR3\\Hirose et al. - 2017 - Can civilian attitudes predict insurgent violence.pdf:application/pdf}, } @article{hofman_prediction_2017, title = {Prediction and explanation in social systems}, volume = {355}, issn = {1095-9203}, doi = {10.1126/science.aal3856}, abstract = {Historically, social scientists have sought out explanations of human and social phenomena that provide interpretable causal mechanisms, while often ignoring their predictive accuracy. We argue that the increasingly computational nature of social science is beginning to reverse this traditional bias against prediction; however, it has also highlighted three important issues that require resolution. First, current practices for evaluating predictions must be better standardized. Second, theoretical limits to predictive accuracy in complex social systems must be better characterized, thereby setting expectations for what can be predicted or explained. Third, predictive accuracy and interpretability must be recognized as complements, not substitutes, when evaluating explanations. Resolving these three issues will lead to better, more replicable, and more useful social science.}, language = {eng}, number = {6324}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, author = {Hofman, Jake M. and Sharma, Amit and Watts, Duncan J.}, month = feb, year = {2017}, pmid = {28154051}, pages = {486--488}, file = {Full Text:C\:\\Users\\SAYASH\\Zotero\\storage\\2HLU6S6K\\Hofman et al. - 2017 - Prediction and explanation in social systems.pdf:application/pdf}, } @article{hegre_evaluating_2019, title = {Evaluating the {Conflict}-{Reducing} {Effect} of {UN} {Peacekeeping} {Operations}}, volume = {81}, issn = {0022-3816}, url = {https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/full/10.1086/700203}, doi = {10.1086/700203}, abstract = {Several studies show a beneficial effect of peacekeeping operations (PKOs). However, by looking at individual effect pathways (intensity, duration, recurrence, diffusion) in isolation, they underestimate the peacekeeping impact of PKOs. We propose a novel method of evaluating the combined impact across all pathways based on a statistical model of the efficacy of UN PKOs in preventing the onset, escalation, continuation, and recurrence of internal armed conflict. We run a set of simulations based on the statistical estimates to assess the impact of alternative UN policies for the 2001{\textendash}13 period. If the UN had invested US\$200 billion in PKOs with strong mandates, major armed conflict would have been reduced by up to two-thirds relative to a scenario without PKOs and 150,000 lives would have been saved over the 13-year period compared to a no-PKO scenario. UN peacekeeping is clearly a cost-effective way of increasing global security.}, number = {1}, urldate = {2021-06-26}, journal = {The Journal of Politics}, author = {Hegre, H{\r a}vard and Hultman, Lisa and Nyg{\r a}rd, H{\r a}vard Mokleiv}, month = jan, year = {2019}, note = {Publisher: The University of Chicago Press}, pages = {215--232}, file = {Full Text PDF:C\:\\Users\\SAYASH\\Zotero\\storage\\DNNCWALK\\Hegre et al. - 2019 - Evaluating the Conflict-Reducing Effect of UN Peac.pdf:application/pdf;Snapshot:C\:\\Users\\SAYASH\\Zotero\\storage\\LYCHQQBQ\\700203.html:text/html}, } @article{ienca_healthcare_2018, title = {From {Healthcare} to {Warfare} and {Reverse}: {How} {Should} {We} {Regulate} {Dual}-{Use} {Neurotechnology}?}, volume = {97}, issn = {1097-4199}, shorttitle = {From {Healthcare} to {Warfare} and {Reverse}}, doi = {10.1016/j.neuron.2017.12.017}, abstract = {Recent advances in military-funded neurotechnology and novel opportunities for misusing neurodevices show that the problem of dual use is inherent to neuroscience. This paper discusses how the neuroscience community should respond to these dilemmas and delineates a neuroscience-specific biosecurity framework. This neurosecurity framework involves calibrated regulation, (neuro)ethical guidelines, and awareness-raising activities within the scientific community.}, language = {eng}, number = {2}, journal = {Neuron}, author = {Ienca, Marcello and Jotterand, Fabrice and Elger, Bernice S.}, month = jan, year = {2018}, pmid = {29346750}, keywords = {Armed Conflicts, Biomedical Technology, Brain-Computer Interfaces, Computer Security, Diagnostic Techniques, Neurological, Dual Use Research, Humans, Inventions, Lie Detection, Military Medicine, Nervous System Diseases, Neurosciences, Self-Help Devices, Terrorism, Torture}, pages = {269--274}, file = {Full Text:C\:\\Users\\SAYASH\\Zotero\\storage\\QQL6CGY3\\Ienca et al. - 2018 - From Healthcare to Warfare and Reverse How Should.pdf:application/pdf}, } @article{jager_not_2016, title = {Not a {New} {Gold} {Standard}: {Even} {Big} {Data} {Cannot} {Predict} the {Future}}, volume = {28}, issn = {0891-3811}, shorttitle = {Not a {New} {Gold} {Standard}}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/08913811.2016.1237704}, doi = {10.1080/08913811.2016.1237704}, abstract = {Many scholars believe that the proliferation of large-scale datasets will spur scientific advancement and help us to predict the future using sophisticated statistical techniques. Indeed, a team of researchers achieved astonishing success using the world{\textquoteright}s largest event dataset, produced by the icews project, to predict complex social outcomes such as civil wars and irregular government turnovers. However, the secret of their success lay in transforming epistemically difficult questions into easy ones. Forecasting the onset of civil wars becomes an easy task if one relies on explanatory variables that measure how often newspapers report on tensions, fights, or killings. But news reports on prewar conflicts are just variations of the variable that researchers want to predict; the finding that more conflicts are likely to occur when journalists report about conflicts carries little scientific value. A similar success rate in {\textquotedblleft}predicting{\textquotedblright} interstate wars can also be achieved by a simple Google News search for country names and conflict-related news shortly just before a conflict is coded as a war. Big data can help researchers to make predictions in simple situations, but there is no evidence that predictions will also succeed in uncertain environments with complex outcomes{\textemdash}such as those characteristic of politics.}, number = {3-4}, urldate = {2021-06-26}, journal = {Critical Review}, author = {J{\"a}ger, Kai}, month = oct, year = {2016}, keywords = {big data, event data, ICEWS, ideational factors, machine coding, Nassim Taleb, peace and conflict studies, Thai conflict, unpredictability}, pages = {335--355}, file = {Submitted Version:C\:\\Users\\SAYASH\\Zotero\\storage\\Q2U6RHE2\\J{\"a}ger - 2016 - Not a New Gold Standard Even Big Data Cannot Pred.pdf:application/pdf;Snapshot:C\:\\Users\\SAYASH\\Zotero\\storage\\DME6B99H\\08913811.2016.html:text/html}, } @article{koren_means_2017, title = {Means to an end: {Pro}-government militias as a predictive indicator of strategic mass killing}, volume = {34}, issn = {0738-8942}, shorttitle = {Means to an end}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1177/0738894215600385}, doi = {10.1177/0738894215600385}, abstract = {Forecasting models of state-led mass killing are limited in their use of structural indicators, despite a large body of research that emphasizes the importance of agency and security repertoires in conditioning political violence. I seek to overcome these limitations by developing a theoretical and statistical framework that highlights the advantages of using pro-government militias (PGMs) as a predictive indicator in forecasting models of state-led mass killing. I argue that PGMs can lower the potential costs associated with mass killing for a regime faced with an internal threat, and might hence {\textquotedblleft}tip the balance{\textquotedblright} in its favor. In estimating a series of statistical models and their receiver{\textendash}operator characteristic curves to evaluate this hypothesis globally for the years 1981{\textendash}2007, focusing on 270 internal threat episodes, I find robust support for my expectations: including PGM indicators in state-led mass killing models significantly improves their predictive strength. Moreover, these results hold even when coefficient estimates produced by in-sample data are used to predict state-led mass killing in cross-validation and out-of-sample data for the years 2008{\textendash}2013. This study hence provides an introductory demonstration of the potential advantages of including security repertoires, in addition to structural factors, in forecasting models.}, language = {en}, number = {5}, urldate = {2021-06-26}, journal = {Conflict Management and Peace Science}, author = {Koren, Ore}, month = sep, year = {2017}, note = {Publisher: SAGE Publications Ltd}, keywords = {Forecasting models, mass killing, political violence, pro-government militias}, pages = {461--484}, } @incollection{leese_we_2020, title = {{\textquoteleft}{We} do that once per day{\textquoteright}: {Cyclical} futures and institutional ponderousness in predictive policing 1}, isbn = {978-1-00-302242-8}, shorttitle = {{\textquoteleft}{We} do that once per day{\textquoteright}}, abstract = {This chapter investigates the temporal modalities of predictive policing. It argues that there is a considerable rift between the technoscientific imaginaries of automation, real-time situational awareness, and maximum responsiveness on the one hand, and the static ways in which police departments practice algorithmic crime analysis on the other. Due to the asynchronicity between crime and police work, the police consider it sufficient to analyse crime data only once per day and work with the resulting risk estimates for up to seven days. Such temporal practices decisively undercut narratives of operational flexibility vis-{\`a}-vis a supposedly dynamic threat environment. Static temporal modalities become further aggravated by the inability to mobilize sufficient personnel resources for the implementation of crime prevention measures. Overall, so this chapter claims, the temporalities of predictive policing primarily align with the characteristics of the addressed type of crime and with entrenched operational requirements of police work. Crime prediction must in this sense be understood as an iterative, rhythmic activity that keeps on producing short-term futures.}, booktitle = {The {Politics} and {Science} of {Prevision}}, publisher = {Routledge}, author = {Leese, Matthias}, year = {2020}, note = {Num Pages: 14}, file = {Full Text PDF:C\:\\Users\\SAYASH\\Zotero\\storage\\PETQLHNT\\Leese - 2020 - {\textquoteleft}We do that once per day{\textquoteright} Cyclical futures and in.pdf:application/pdf}, } @article{perera_boldly_2017, title = {To {Boldly} {Know}: {Knowledge}, {Peacekeeping} and {Remote} {Data} {Gathering} in {Conflict}-{Affected} {States}}, volume = {24}, issn = {1353-3312}, shorttitle = {To {Boldly} {Know}}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/13533312.2017.1383566}, doi = {10.1080/13533312.2017.1383566}, abstract = {In recent years, the difficulty of researching with conflict-affected populations, coupled with the demand for up-to-date and accurate knowledge about the dynamics of conflict on the ground, has led many organizations working in conflict-affected states to turn to mobile and internet technology to find solutions to peacekeeping problems. While acknowledging that new technologies can be of use to peacekeepers seeking to gain a better understanding of the conflicts that they operate in, this article warns against an over-reliance on remotely gathered conflict data. Through a comparative analysis of the author{\textquoteright}s own experiences of carrying out both ethnographic fieldwork and utilizing crowdsourcing technologies, this article critically evaluates crowdsourcing{\textquoteright}s uses and abuses. It argues that while crowdsourcing may be a useful supplement to knowledge gained from sustained and embedded engagement in the field, it can never be a substitute. Furthermore, an over-reliance on remotely gathered data can end up reifying simplistic or misleading understandings of the drivers of conflict, and promoting elite interests at the expense of the marginalized voices it claims to make visible.}, number = {5}, urldate = {2021-06-26}, journal = {International Peacekeeping}, author = {Perera, Suda}, month = oct, year = {2017}, pages = {803--822}, file = {Snapshot:C\:\\Users\\SAYASH\\Zotero\\storage\\5S2HFXFZ\\13533312.2017.html:text/html}, } @article{pilster_differentiation_2016, title = {The {Differentiation} of {Security} {Forces} and the {Onset} of {Genocidal} {Violence}}, volume = {42}, issn = {0095-327X}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1177/0095327X14559515}, doi = {10.1177/0095327X14559515}, abstract = {Which factors drive the onset of genocidal violence? While the previous literature identified several important influences, states{\textquoteright} military capabilities for conducting mass-killings and the structure of their security forces have received surprisingly little attention so far. The authors take this shortcoming as a motivation for their research. A theoretical framework is developed, which argues that more differentiated security forces, that is, forces that are composed of a higher number of independent paramilitary and military organizations, are likely to act as a restraint factor in the process leading to state-sponsored mass-killings. Quantitative analyses support the argument for a sample of state-failure years for 1971{\textendash}2003, and it is also shown that considering a state{\textquoteright}s security force structure improves our ability to forecast genocides.}, language = {en}, number = {1}, urldate = {2021-06-26}, journal = {Armed Forces \& Society}, author = {Pilster, Ulrich and B{\"o}hmelt, Tobias and Tago, Atsushi}, month = jan, year = {2016}, note = {Publisher: SAGE Publications Inc}, keywords = {civil{\textendash}military relations, counterinsurgency, genocide, security force structure}, pages = {26--50}, } @article{schneider_oracle_2017, title = {The oracle or the crowd? {Experts} versus the stock market in forecasting ceasefire success in the {Levant}}, volume = {54}, issn = {0022-3433}, shorttitle = {The oracle or the crowd?}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343316683437}, doi = {10.1177/0022343316683437}, abstract = {The forecasting literature has come to mistrust the predictions made by experts who forecast political events in mass media. Distinguishing between judgements made by one or few individuals ({\textquoteleft}oracles{\textquoteright}) and assessments made by larger groups ({\textquoteleft}crowds{\textquoteright}), we contrast journalistic predictions with forecasts stemming from the financial industry. These two competing views were evaluated in a quantitative analysis of the ex ante success of 24 ceasefire agreements in various conflicts which took place in the Levant from 1993 to 2014. Our analysis compares the forecasts appearing in press commentaries (Haaretz, Jerusalem Post and New York Times) with the expectations that the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange had about the stability of these cooperative efforts. To evaluate the predictions of these very dissimilar sources, the effectiveness of the ceasefires was analysed through the number of violent events following the official start of the truce. The analysis shows that the financial industry performs better than the media industry in the comparative evaluation of ceasefire forecasts, but that neither source provides sufficiently accurate predictions. The partial support for the crowd thesis is discussed in light of recent literature that resuscitates the usage of well-trained experts for forecasting purposes, but warns against the dramatizing predictions of media pundits.}, language = {en}, number = {2}, urldate = {2021-06-26}, journal = {Journal of Peace Research}, author = {Schneider, Gerald and Hadar, Maya and Bosler, Naomi}, month = mar, year = {2017}, note = {Publisher: SAGE Publications Ltd}, keywords = {conflict management, evaluation, expert forecasts, financial markets, Middle East, prediction}, pages = {231--242}, file = {Submitted Version:C\:\\Users\\SAYASH\\Zotero\\storage\\2H4RRQHW\\Schneider et al. - 2017 - The oracle or the crowd Experts versus the stock .pdf:application/pdf}, } @article{schutte_regions_2017, title = {Regions at {Risk}: {Predicting} {Conflict} {Zones} in {African} {Insurgencies}*}, volume = {5}, issn = {2049-8470, 2049-8489}, shorttitle = {Regions at {Risk}}, url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/political-science-research-and-methods/article/abs/regions-at-risk-predicting-conflict-zones-in-african-insurgencies/4DCDBA2BCC8B4E3D5057A2C37DDB2BD6}, doi = {10.1017/psrm.2015.84}, abstract = {A method for predicting conflict zones in civil wars based on point process models is presented in this paper. Instead of testing the validity of specific theoretical conjectures about the determinants of violence in a causal framework, this paper builds on classic literature and a wide body of recent studies to predict conflict zones based on a series of geographic conditions. Using an innovative cross-validation design, the study shows that the quantitative research program on the micro-foundations of violence in civil conflict has crafted generalizable insights permitting out-of-sample predictions of conflict zones. The study region is delimited to ten countries in Sub-Saharan Africa that experienced full-blown insurgencies in the post-Cold War era.}, language = {en}, number = {3}, urldate = {2021-06-26}, journal = {Political Science Research and Methods}, author = {Schutte, Sebastian}, month = jul, year = {2017}, note = {Publisher: Cambridge University Press}, pages = {447--465}, file = {Submitted Version:C\:\\Users\\SAYASH\\Zotero\\storage\\QHIXCRBM\\Schutte - 2017 - Regions at Risk Predicting Conflict Zones in Afri.pdf:application/pdf;Snapshot:C\:\\Users\\SAYASH\\Zotero\\storage\\YY2NJ3UZ\\4DCDBA2BCC8B4E3D5057A2C37DDB2BD6.html:text/html}, } @article{weezel_food_2016, title = {Food imports, international prices, and violence in {Africa}}, volume = {68}, url = {https://ideas.repec.org/a/oup/oxecpp/v68y2016i3p758-781..html}, abstract = {This study examines the effect of food price fluctuations on violence in Africa, using international food prices as a source of exogenous shock weighted by a country{\textquoteright}s import pattern of major food commodities to create a country-specific food price index. The regression analysis shows that between 1990 and 2011, food price increases are associated with higher levels of violence. Moving from low to high values in the price index corresponds, after controlling for economic, social, and political factors, to an increase in violence intensity of 1.3 incidents. This effect is predominantly driven by imports of low-value-added primary products. Despite the statistically significant results, the predictive power of food prices is relatively low, both in and out of sample. Using 2012 data for out-of-sample forecast shows that food prices are a relatively poor predictor of violence.}, language = {en}, number = {3}, urldate = {2021-06-26}, journal = {Oxford Economic Papers}, author = {Weezel, Stijn van}, year = {2016}, note = {Publisher: Oxford University Press}, pages = {758--781}, file = {Snapshot:C\:\\Users\\SAYASH\\Zotero\\storage\\N2DTLA7T\\v68y2016i3p758-781..html:text/html}, } @article{ward_can_2016, title = {Can {We} {Predict} {Politics}? {Toward} {What} {End}?}, volume = {1}, issn = {2057-3170}, shorttitle = {Can {We} {Predict} {Politics}?}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1093/jogss/ogv002}, doi = {10.1093/jogss/ogv002}, number = {1}, urldate = {2021-06-26}, journal = {Journal of Global Security Studies}, author = {Ward, Michael D}, month = feb, year = {2016}, pages = {80--91}, file = {Full Text PDF:C\:\\Users\\SAYASH\\Zotero\\storage\\3297PDYL\\Ward - 2016 - Can We Predict Politics Toward What End.pdf:application/pdf;Snapshot:C\:\\Users\\SAYASH\\Zotero\\storage\\FW6NDW5Y\\1834930.html:text/html}, } @article{ward_lessons_2017, title = {Lessons from near real-time forecasting of irregular leadership changes}, volume = {54}, issn = {0022-3433}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343316680858}, doi = {10.1177/0022343316680858}, abstract = {Since 2014, we have been producing regular six-month forecasts of the probability of irregular leadership changes {\textendash} coups, rebellions, protests that result in state leader changes {\textendash} for most countries in the world for the Political Instability Task Force (PITF). During 2015, we issued new forecasts each month, with a delay as short as five days and no longer than two weeks into each six-month forecasting window. This article describes the approach we use to generate our forecasts and presents several examples of how we present forecasts. The forecasts are derived from a statistical ensemble of seven thematic models, each based on a split-population duration model that aims to capture a specific argument or related set of covariates. This approach is modular in that thematic models can be swapped out or new models integrated, and it lessens the need for generalist {\textquoteleft}kitchen sink{\textquoteright} models. Together, the models achieve high out-of-sample accuracy. Based on our experience, we draw conclusions about the practical, policy, and scientific aspects of this and similar undertakings. These include thoughts on how to evaluate and present forecasts, the potential role of ensembles in model comparison, the role of ensembles and prediction in causal research, and considerations for future efforts in forecasting and predictive modeling.}, language = {en}, number = {2}, urldate = {2021-06-26}, journal = {Journal of Peace Research}, author = {Ward, Michael D and Beger, Andreas}, month = mar, year = {2017}, note = {Publisher: SAGE Publications Ltd}, keywords = {coups, EBMA, ensemble, forecasting, ILC, PITF, prediction, protest, rebellion, split-population duration regression}, pages = {141--156}, } @article{witmer_subnational_2017, title = {Subnational violent conflict forecasts for sub-{Saharan} {Africa}, 2015{\textendash}65, using climate-sensitive models}, volume = {54}, issn = {0022-3433}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343316682064}, doi = {10.1177/0022343316682064}, abstract = {How will local violent conflict patterns in sub-Saharan Africa evolve until the middle of the 21st century? Africa is recognized as a particularly vulnerable continent to environmental and climate change since a large portion of its population is poor and reliant on rain-fed agriculture. We use a climate-sensitive approach to model sub-Saharan African violence in the past (geolocated to the nearest settlements) and then forecast future violence using sociopolitical factors such as population size and political rights (governance), coupled with temperature anomalies. Our baseline model is calibrated using 1{\textdegree} gridded monthly data from 1980 to 2012 at a finer spatio-temporal resolution than existing conflict forecasts. We present multiple forecasts of violence under alternative climate change scenarios (optimistic and current global trajectories), of political rights scenarios (improvement and decline), and population projections (low and high fertility). We evaluate alternate shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) by plotting violence forecasts over time and by detailed mapping of recent and future levels of violence by decade. The forecasts indicate that a growing population and rising temperatures will lead to higher levels of violence in sub-Saharan Africa if political rights do not improve. If political rights continue to improve at the same rate as observed over the last three decades, there is reason for optimism that overall levels of violence will hold steady or even decline in Africa, in spite of projected population increases and rising temperatures.}, language = {en}, number = {2}, urldate = {2021-06-26}, journal = {Journal of Peace Research}, author = {Witmer, Frank DW and Linke, Andrew M and O{\textquoteright}Loughlin, John and Gettelman, Andrew and Laing, Arlene}, month = mar, year = {2017}, note = {Publisher: SAGE Publications Ltd}, keywords = {disaggregated violence, environmental change, governance, multilevel models, population projections, socioeconomic pathways}, pages = {175--192}, } % About the data: Exported on May 20, 2021. Criteria: Text - 'civil AND war AND (prediction OR predicting OR forecast)' in title and abstract; Publication Year is 2016 or 2017 or 2018 or 2019 or 2020 or 2021. @article{pub.1003109743, author = {Schutte, Sebastian}, doi = {10.1017/psrm.2015.84}, journal = {Political Science Research and Methods}, keywords = {}, number = {3}, pages = {447-465}, title = {Regions at Risk: Predicting Conflict Zones in African Insurgencies*}, url = {https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1003109743 and https://kops.uni-konstanz.de/bitstream/123456789/36450/1/Schutte_0-382459.pdf}, volume = {5}, year = {2017} } @article{pub.1003861360, author = {Jäger, Kai}, doi = {10.1080/08913811.2016.1237704}, journal = {Critical Review}, keywords = {}, number = {3-4}, pages = {1-21}, title = {Not a New Gold Standard: Even Big Data Cannot Predict the Future}, url = {https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1003861360 and https://kclpure.kcl.ac.uk/portal/files/101491005/Not_a_New_Gold_Standard_JAGER_Firstonline8December2016_GREEN_AAM_.pdf}, volume = {28}, year = {2016} } @article{pub.1011410713, author = {Novta, Natalija}, doi = {10.1111/jeea.12171}, journal = {Journal of the European Economic Association}, keywords = {}, number = {5}, pages = {1074-1100}, title = {ETHNIC DIVERSITY AND THE SPREAD OF CIVIL WAR}, url = {https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1011410713}, volume = {14}, year = {2016} } @inbook{pub.1014397258, author = {Fahey, Tom and Wilson, Emily N. and O'Loughlin, Rory and Thomas, Melissa and Klipfel, Stephanie}, booktitle = {Aviation Turbulence}, doi = {10.1007/978-3-319-23630-8_2}, keywords = {}, pages = {31-58}, publisher = {}, title = {A History of Weather Reporting from Aircraft and Turbulence Forecasting for Commercial Aviation}, url = {https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1014397258}, year = {2016} } @inbook{pub.1015064869, author = {Beck, Martin}, booktitle = {The Levant in Turmoil}, doi = {10.1057/9781137526021_9}, keywords = {}, pages = {167-189}, publisher = {}, title = {Failed Attempts or Failures to Attempt? Western Policies toward Palestinian Statehood}, url = {https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1015064869}, year = {2016} } @article{pub.1028189033, author = {Schneibel, Anne and Stellmes, Marion and Röder, Achim and Finckh, Manfred and Revermann, Rasmus and Frantz, David and Hill, Joachim}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.12.137}, journal = {The Science of The Total Environment}, keywords = {}, number = {}, pages = {390-401}, title = {Evaluating the trade-off between food and timber resulting from the conversion of Miombo forests to agricultural land in Angola using multi-temporal Landsat data}, url = {https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1028189033}, volume = {548}, year = {2016} } @article{pub.1030351425, author = {JUNEAU, THOMAS}, doi = {10.1111/1468-2346.12599}, journal = {International Affairs}, keywords = {}, number = {3}, pages = {647-663}, title = {Iran's policy towards the Houthis in Yemen: a limited return on a modest investment}, url = {https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1030351425}, volume = {92}, year = {2016} } @article{pub.1030960330, author = {Jevtić, Radoje}, doi = {10.5937/nbp1602035j}, journal = {Nauka bezbednost policija}, keywords = {}, number = {2}, pages = {35-48}, title = {Simulation of evacuation situations in order to protect human lives and material property}, url = {https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1030960330 and https://scindeks-clanci.ceon.rs/data/pdf/0354-8872/2016/0354-88721602035J.pdf}, volume = {21}, year = {2016} } @article{pub.1032840683, author = {Bell, Andrew M.}, doi = {10.1080/09636412.2016.1195626}, journal = {Security Studies}, keywords = {}, number = {3}, pages = {488-518}, title = {Military Culture and Restraint toward Civilians in War: Examining the Ugandan Civil Wars}, url = {https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1032840683}, volume = {25}, year = {2016} } @article{pub.1034853793, author = {Carleton, T. and Hsiang, S.M. and Burke, M.}, doi = {10.1140/epjst/e2015-50100-5}, journal = {The European Physical Journal Special Topics}, keywords = {}, number = {3}, pages = {489-511}, title = {Conflict in a changing climate}, url = {https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1034853793}, volume = {225}, year = {2016} } @article{pub.1038434578, author = {Ishihara, Akifumi and Singh, Prakarsh}, doi = {10.1515/bejeap-2015-0017}, journal = {The B E Journal of Economic Analysis \& Policy}, keywords = {}, number = {2}, pages = {865-899}, title = {Concessions and Repression in Conflict}, url = {https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1038434578 and https://www.degruyter.com/document/doi/10.1515/bejeap-2015-0017/pdf}, volume = {16}, year = {2016} } @inbook{pub.1043204087, author = {Bangura, Joseph J.}, booktitle = {Democratization and Human Security in Postwar Sierra Leone}, doi = {10.1057/9781137486745_12}, keywords = {}, pages = {251-255}, publisher = {}, title = {Conclusion: The Interface between Democratization and Human Security}, url = {https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1043204087}, year = {2016} } @article{pub.1046653376, author = {Littleton, Charles}, doi = {10.1111/1750-0206.12235}, journal = {Parliamentary History}, keywords = {}, number = {3}, pages = {242-261}, title = {The Earls of Derby and the Opposition to their Estate Bills in Parliament, 1660-92: Some New Manuscript Sources}, url = {https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1046653376 and https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/1501064/1/Littleton_Derby%20paper%20for%20Parliamentary%20History%20-%20FINAL%20V%20ERSION.pdf}, volume = {35}, year = {2016} } @article{pub.1049599362, author = {Del Vicario, Michela and Bessi, Alessandro and Zollo, Fabiana and Petroni, Fabio and Scala, Antonio and Caldarelli, Guido and Stanley, H. Eugene and Quattrociocchi, Walter}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.1517441113}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, keywords = {}, number = {3}, pages = {554-559}, title = {The spreading of misinformation online}, url = {https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1049599362 and https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/113/3/554.full.pdf}, volume = {113}, year = {2016} } @article{pub.1051220686, author = {Röder, Achim and Pröpper, Michael and Stellmes, Marion and Schneibel, Anne and Hill, Joachim}, doi = {10.1016/j.landusepol.2014.08.020}, journal = {Land Use Policy}, keywords = {}, number = {}, pages = {97-111}, title = {Reprint of Assessing urban growth and rural land use transformations in a cross-border situation in Northern Namibia and Southern Angola}, url = {https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1051220686}, volume = {53}, year = {2016} } @article{pub.1053494770, author = {Ertl, Verena and Saile, Regina and Neuner, Frank and Catani, Claudia}, doi = {10.1186/s12888-016-0905-7}, journal = {BMC Psychiatry}, keywords = {}, number = {1}, pages = {202}, title = {Drinking to ease the burden: a cross-sectional study on trauma, alcohol abuse and psychopathology in a post-conflict context}, url = {https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1053494770 and https://bmcpsychiatry.biomedcentral.com/track/pdf/10.1186/s12888-016-0905-7}, volume = {16}, year = {2016} } @article{pub.1059969328, author = {Muchlinski, David and Siroky, David and He, Jingrui and Kocher, Matthew}, doi = {10.1093/pan/mpv024}, journal = {Political Analysis}, keywords = {}, number = {1}, pages = {87-103}, title = {Comparing Random Forest with Logistic Regression for Predicting Class-Imbalanced Civil War Onset Data}, url = {https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1059969328}, volume = {24}, year = {2016} } @article{pub.1063625620, author = {KlaÅ¡nja, Marko and Novta, Natalija}, doi = {10.1177/0022002714550084}, journal = {Journal of Conflict Resolution}, keywords = {}, number = {5}, pages = {927-955}, title = {Segregation, Polarization, and Ethnic Conflict}, url = {https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1063625620}, volume = {60}, year = {2016} } @article{pub.1072822849, author = {Brown, Norman R and Schweickart, Oliver and Svob, Connie}, doi = {10.5406/amerjpsyc.129.3.0259}, journal = {The American Journal of Psychology}, keywords = {}, number = {3}, pages = {259-282}, title = {The Effect of Collective Transitions on the Organization and Contents of Autobiographical Memory: A Transition Theory Perspective.}, url = {https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1072822849}, volume = {129}, year = {2016} } @article{pub.1083939934, author = {Colaresi, Michael and Mahmood, Zuhaib}, doi = {10.1177/0022343316682065}, journal = {Journal of Peace Research}, keywords = {}, number = {2}, pages = {193-214}, title = {Do the robot}, url = {https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1083939934}, volume = {54}, year = {2017} } @article{pub.1083939937, author = {Cederman, Lars-Erik and Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede and Wucherpfennig, Julian}, doi = {10.1177/0022343316684191}, journal = {Journal of Peace Research}, keywords = {}, number = {2}, pages = {262-274}, title = {Predicting the decline of ethnic civil war}, url = {https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1083939937 and http://repository.essex.ac.uk/17285/1/short_decline_2016-07-20.pdf}, volume = {54}, year = {2017} } @article{pub.1083939938, author = {Chiba, Daina and Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede}, doi = {10.1177/0022343316684192}, journal = {Journal of Peace Research}, keywords = {}, number = {2}, pages = {275-297}, title = {The shape of things to come? 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Segunda Época}, keywords = {}, number = {}, pages = {97}, title = {Engaños y errores en el Homenaje a Cataluña}, url = {https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1100702804 and https://e-revistas.uc3m.es/index.php/HISPNOV/article/download/4033/2587}, volume = {}, year = {2018} } @article{pub.1103580070, author = {Zwetsloot, Remco}, doi = {10.2139/ssrn.3112804}, journal = {SSRN Electronic Journal}, keywords = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, title = {Testing Richardson's Law: A (Cautionary) Note on Power Laws in Violence Data}, url = {https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1103580070}, volume = {}, year = {2018} } @article{pub.1106366339, author = {Aktas, Vezir and Tepe, Yeliz Kındap and Persson, Roland S.}, doi = {10.1007/s12144-018-9971-y}, journal = {Current Psychology}, keywords = {}, number = {2}, pages = {553-562}, title = {Investigating Turkish university students' attitudes towards refugees in a time of Civil War in neighboring Syria}, url = {https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1106366339 and https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s12144-018-9971-y.pdf}, volume = {40}, year = {} } @article{pub.1106966313, author = {Hlongwana, James}, doi = {10.5897/ajpsir2018.1073}, journal = {African Journal of Political Science and International Relations}, keywords = {}, number = {5}, pages = {63-68}, title = {Old habits die hard: Resistensia Nacional Mozambicana (RENAMO) propensity for military confrontation against its professed embracement of peaceful conflict resolution, 1976 to 2017}, url = {https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1106966313 and https://academicjournals.org/journal/AJPSIR/article-full-text-pdf/C63D14958374.pdf}, volume = {12}, year = {2018} } @article{pub.1107200882, author = {Novoselova, E. 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= {2019} } @article{pub.1110962072, author = {Turchin, Peter and Witoszek, Nina and Thurner, Stefan and Garcia, David and Griffin, Roger and Hoyer, Daniel and Midttun, Atle and Bennett, James and Næss, Knut Myrum and Gavrilets, Sergey}, doi = {10.21237/c7clio9242078}, journal = {Cliodynamics The Journal of Quantitative History and Cultural Evolution}, keywords = {}, number = {2}, pages = {}, title = {A History of Possible Futures: Multipath Forecasting of Social Breakdown, Recovery, and Resilience}, url = {https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1110962072 and https://escholarship.org/content/qt0g05k07v/qt0g05k07v.pdf?t=px7hee}, volume = {9}, year = {2018} } @article{pub.1110991535, author = {Wang, Yu}, doi = {10.1017/pan.2018.40}, journal = {Political Analysis}, keywords = {}, number = {1}, pages = {107-110}, title = {Comparing Random Forest with Logistic Regression for Predicting Class-Imbalanced Civil War Onset Data: A Comment}, url = {https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1110991535 and https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/B62CC1DA390C58435004D4C5D56DBF71/S1047198718000402a.pdf/div-class-title-comparing-random-forest-with-logistic-regression-for-predicting-class-imbalanced-civil-war-onset-data-a-comment-div.pdf}, volume = {27}, year = {2019} } @article{pub.1111413276, author = {Sharif, Sally}, doi = {10.1080/1057610x.2018.1538153}, journal = {Studies in Conflict and Terrorism}, keywords = {}, number = {4}, pages = {1-20}, title = {Predicting the End of the Syrian Conflict: From Theory to the Reality of a Civil War}, url = {https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1111413276}, volume = {44}, year = {2021} } @article{pub.1112246212, author = {Kaufman, Aaron Russell and Kraft, Peter and Sen, Maya}, doi = {10.1017/pan.2018.59}, journal = {Political Analysis}, keywords = {}, number = {3}, pages = {381-387}, title = {Improving Supreme Court Forecasting Using Boosted Decision Trees}, url = {https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1112246212 and https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/166AA006B8DA7C87F1B17291B0BB8B63/S1047198718000591a.pdf/div-class-title-improving-supreme-court-forecasting-using-boosted-decision-trees-div.pdf}, volume = {27}, year = {2019} } @article{pub.1112547618, author = {Hinkkainen Elliott, Kaisa and Kreutz, Joakim}, doi = {10.1177/0022343318821174}, journal = {Journal of Peace Research}, keywords = {}, number = {4}, pages = {499-513}, title = {Natural resource wars in the shadow of the future: Explaining spatial dynamics of violence during civil war}, url = {https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1112547618 and http://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/134526/1/JPR_main_deposit.pdf}, volume = {56}, year = {2019} } @article{pub.1112686416, author = {Chandra, Kanchan and García-Ponce, Omar}, doi = {10.1017/s004388711800028x}, journal = {World Politics}, keywords = {}, number = {2}, pages = {367-416}, title = {Why Ethnic Subaltern-Led Parties Crowd Out Armed Organizations: Explaining Maoist Violence in India}, url = {https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1112686416}, volume = {71}, year = {2019} } @article{pub.1112689484, author = {Koren, Ore}, doi = {10.1177/0022002719833160}, journal = {Journal of Conflict Resolution}, keywords = {}, number = {10}, pages = {2236-2261}, title = {Food Resources and Strategic Conflict}, url = {https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1112689484}, volume = {63}, year = {2019} } @book{pub.1113206795, author = {Clapson, Mark}, doi = {10.16997/book26}, editor = {}, keywords = {}, pages = {}, title = {The Blitz Companion}, url = {https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1113206795 and https://www.uwestminsterpress.co.uk/site/books/10.16997/book26/download/2671/}, year = {2019} } @article{pub.1113647588, author = {Carlson, Marianne Millen and McElroy, Stacey E. and Aten, Jamie D. and Davis, Edward B. and Van Tongeren, Daryl and Hook, Joshua N. and Davis, Don E.}, doi = {10.1080/10508619.2019.1586067}, journal = {International Journal for the Psychology of Religion}, keywords = {}, number = {2}, pages = {94-107}, title = {We Welcome Refugees? Understanding the Relationship between Religious Orientation, Religious Commitment, Personality, and Prejudicial Attitudes toward Syrian Refugees}, url = {https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1113647588}, volume = {29}, year = {2019} } @article{pub.1113955372, author = {Turchin, Peter and Witoszek, Nina and Thurner, Stefan and Garcia, David and Griffin, Roger and Hoyer, Daniel and Midttun, Atle and Bennett, James and Næss, Knut Myrum and Gavrilets, Sergey}, doi = {10.21237/c7clio9243668}, journal = {Cliodynamics The Journal of Quantitative History and Cultural Evolution}, keywords = {}, number = {2}, pages = {}, title = {A History of Possible Futures: Multipath Forecasting of Social Breakdown, Recovery, and Resilience}, url = {https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1113955372 and https://escholarship.org/content/qt0g05k07v/qt0g05k07v.pdf?t=px7hee}, volume = {9}, year = {2019} } @article{pub.1117823339, author = {Lakmali, S. M. M. and Nawarathna, L. S.}, doi = {10.9734/ajpas/2018/v2i328785}, journal = {Asian Journal of Probability and Statistics}, keywords = {}, number = {}, pages = {1-7}, title = {Identifying and Predicting Major Factors Affecting the Suicides in Sri Lanka}, url = {https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1117823339 and https://doi.org/10.9734/ajpas/2018/v2i328785}, volume = {}, year = {2019} } @article{pub.1118000568, author = {Miller, David P. and Allsop, Derek and Carr, Debra J.}, doi = {10.1080/15740773.2019.1634914}, journal = {Journal of Conflict Archaeology}, keywords = {}, number = {1}, pages = {1-12}, title = {The ballistics of seventeenth century musket balls}, url = {https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1118000568 and http://dspace.lib.cranfield.ac.uk/bitstream/1826/14894/4/Ballistics_of_seventeenth_century_musket_balls-2019.pdf}, volume = {14}, year = {2019} } @article{pub.1118776601, author = {Fujita, Kazuki and Shinomoto, Shigeru and Rocha, Luis E C}, doi = {}, journal = {arXiv}, keywords = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, title = {Correlations and forecast of death tolls in the Syrian conflict}, url = {https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1118776601}, volume = {}, year = {2016} } @article{pub.1119357866, author = {Badkundri, Rohil and Valbuena, Victor and Pinnamareddy, Srikusmanjali and Cantrell, Brittney and Standeven, Janet}, doi = {}, journal = {arXiv}, keywords = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, title = {Forecasting the 2017-2018 Yemen Cholera Outbreak with Machine Learning}, url = {https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1119357866}, volume = {}, year = {2019} } @inbook{pub.1120038333, author = {Kilgore, De Witt Douglas}, booktitle = {Cinema and Media Studies}, doi = {10.1093/obo/9780199791286-0318}, keywords = {}, pages = {}, publisher = {}, title = {Planet of the Apes}, url = {https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1120038333}, year = {2019} } @book{pub.1121147568, author = {}, doi = 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{https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1124367666 and https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/75545/1/MPRA_paper_75545.pdf}, volume = {48}, year = {2020} } @inproceedings{pub.1125155737, author = {D'Orazio, Vito and Honaker, James and Prasady, Raman and Shoemate, Michael}, booktitle = {2019 IEEE International Conference on Big Data (Big Data)}, doi = {10.1109/bigdata47090.2019.9005963}, keywords = {}, pages = {4714-4723}, title = {Modeling and Forecasting Armed Conflict: AutoML with Human-Guided Machine Learning}, url = {https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1125155737}, year = {2019} } @article{pub.1125526910, author = {Carayannis, Elias G. and Draper, John and Bhaneja, Bill}, doi = {10.31235/osf.io/mrzua}, journal = {SocArXiv}, keywords = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, title = {Fusion Energy for Peace Building - A Trinity Test-Level Critical Juncture}, url = {https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1125526910 and http://osf.io/mrzua/}, volume = {}, year = 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keywords = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, title = {Taking time seriously when evaluating predictions in Binary-Time-Series-Cross-Section-Data}, url = {https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1126947897 and http://osf.io/tvshu/download}, volume = {}, year = {2019} } @article{pub.1126947953, author = {Metternich, Nils W and Çiflikli, Gökhan and Ali, Altaf and Weber, Sigrid and Rickard, Kit and Lomax, Gareth}, doi = {10.31235/osf.io/92y58}, journal = {SocArXiv}, keywords = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, title = {Predicting the severity of civil wars: An actor-centric approach}, url = {https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1126947953 and http://osf.io/92y58/download}, volume = {}, year = {2019} } @article{pub.1127185812, author = {Blair, Robert A. and Sambanis, Nicholas}, doi = {10.1177/0022002720918923}, journal = {Journal of Conflict Resolution}, keywords = {}, number = {10}, pages = {1885-1915}, title = {Forecasting Civil Wars: Theory and Structure in an Age of Big 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E.}, doi = {10.48015/2076-7404-2020-12-3-45-84}, journal = {Moscow University Bulletin of World Politics}, keywords = {}, number = {3}, pages = {45-84}, title = {Lessons of World War II and Strategic Planning of the Big Three (1945-1949)}, url = {https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1133134528}, volume = {12}, year = {2020} } @article{pub.1133677061, author = {Aytzhanova, Dinara and Aytzhanov, Daniyar}, doi = {10.37178/ca-c.20.4.11}, journal = {Central Asia and the Caucasus}, keywords = {}, number = {4}, pages = {112-124}, title = {ISAF WITHDRAWAL AND AN UPSURGE OF RELIGIOUS EXTREMISM IN AFGHANISTAN}, url = {https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1133677061}, volume = {21}, year = {2020} } @article{pub.1135010050, author = {Hegre, Håvard and Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv and Landsverk, Peder}, doi = {10.1093/isq/sqaa094}, journal = {International Studies Quarterly}, keywords = {}, number = {}, pages = {sqaa094-}, title = {Can We Predict Armed Conflict? How the First 9 Years of Published Forecasts Stand Up to Reality}, url = {https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1135010050 and https://doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqaa094}, volume = {}, year = {2021} } @article{pub.1135026476, author = {Beliakova, Polina}, doi = {10.1177/0010414021989757}, journal = {Comparative Political Studies}, keywords = {}, number = {8}, pages = {1393-1423}, title = {Erosion of Civilian Control in Democracies: A Comprehensive Framework for Comparative Analysis}, url = {https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1135026476}, volume = {54}, year = {2021} } @article{pub.1135425518, author = {Abu-Kaf, Sarah and Al-Said, Khaled and Braun-Lewensohn, Orna}, doi = {10.1016/j.comppsych.2021.152227}, journal = {Comprehensive Psychiatry}, keywords = {}, number = {}, pages = {152227}, title = {Community coherence and acculturation strategies among refugee adolescents: How do they explain mental-health symptoms?}, url = {https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1135425518 and https://doi.org/10.1016/j.comppsych.2021.152227}, volume = {106}, year = {2021} } @article{pub.1136939808, author = {Turchin, Peter}, doi = {10.31235/osf.io/f37jy}, journal = {SocArXiv}, keywords = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, title = {Multipath Forecasting: the Aftermath of the 2020 American Crisis}, url = {https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1136939808 and http://osf.io/f37jy/download}, volume = {}, year = {2021} } @article{pub.1137738414, author = {Daughton, Ashlynn and Del Valle, Sara Y. and Ross, Chrysm Watson and Fairchild, Geoffrey}, doi = {10.1145/3462211}, journal = {Digital Government Research and Practice}, keywords = {}, number = {}, pages = {}, title = {Hindcasting violent events in Colombia using Internet data}, url = {https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1137738414}, volume = {}, year = {2021} }